What happened
Both major indexes closed at fresh all-time highs, completing a V-shaped recovery from the prior week's wobble. The spark came from Washington: the administration paused its 'Project Freedom' pressure campaign, citing 'great progress' on an Iran deal, and oil fell 4% to about $110 in response. Chipmaker AMD jumped 16% after hours on strong results.
Under the surface, the fast breadth gauges flipped back to positive and transports bounced hard off their lows. But the market's momentum speedometer is running hot — the Nasdaq-100's daily reading hit 76, deep in overbought territory — and tech participation sat exactly on the 60% regime line.
The dashboard
Above the 60% line — the tech rally counts as broad.
4.12 points below the 77.88 threshold — the three-peak caution pattern remains in force.
Overbought territory — a fast climb that often precedes digestion.
Positive — more stocks advancing than declining on balance.
The trend at a glance
Reference levels on this date
| Reference | Level | Plain meaning |
|---|---|---|
| NDX · 200-day average | 24,871 | The long-term trend line. |
| NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 24,809 | The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle. |
| SPX · 200-day average | 6,738 | The long-term trend line. |
| SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 6,677 | The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index. |
Framework read
Records with momentum this stretched historically favour patience over chase. The 60% participation line is the number to watch from here.