What happened
A four-record day: the S&P 500 closed above 7,300 for the first time, the Nasdaq-100 gained over 2%, and the Dow and Russell 2000 both set records too — the fifth V-shaped recovery in two months. Drivers stacked up: reports of a 'one-page memorandum' nearing between the US and Iran, bullish chip commentary, and oil crashing to $102 on deal optimism.
Tech participation reclaimed the 60% line — a genuine positive. The asterisk sits overseas: Israel struck Beirut the same day, breaking the April ceasefire on that front, a reminder that the geopolitical calm underwriting this rally is still provisional.
The dashboard
Above the 60% line — the tech rally counts as broad.
1.38 points below the 77.88 threshold — the three-peak caution pattern remains in force.
Overbought territory — a fast climb that often precedes digestion.
Positive — more stocks advancing than declining on balance.
The trend at a glance
Reference levels on this date
| Reference | Level | Plain meaning |
|---|---|---|
| NDX · 200-day average | 24,898 | The long-term trend line. |
| NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 24,809 | The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle. |
| SPX · 200-day average | 6,743 | The long-term trend line. |
| SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 6,713 | The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index. |
Framework read
Participation back above 60% keeps the bull framework intact. The rally's foundation is a peace process that has not yet been signed.