•••Lubatix Markets — Daily Brief · 2 of 30

Four Records and a Fragile Ceasefire

US CLOSE — 6 MAY 2026PLAN v9.06
Nasdaq-100
28,599
+2.08% vs prior session
S&P 500
7,365
+1.46% vs prior session
VIX (fear gauge)
17.39
+0.06% vs prior session
Brent crude
$102.00
−7.16% vs prior session

What happened

A four-record day: the S&P 500 closed above 7,300 for the first time, the Nasdaq-100 gained over 2%, and the Dow and Russell 2000 both set records too — the fifth V-shaped recovery in two months. Drivers stacked up: reports of a 'one-page memorandum' nearing between the US and Iran, bullish chip commentary, and oil crashing to $102 on deal optimism.

Tech participation reclaimed the 60% line — a genuine positive. The asterisk sits overseas: Israel struck Beirut the same day, breaking the April ceasefire on that front, a reminder that the geopolitical calm underwriting this rally is still provisional.

The dashboard

Tech participation (BPNDX) · regime line 60%
62%

Above the 60% line — the tech rally counts as broad.

Monthly momentum (NDX M-RSI) · threshold 77.88
76.50

1.38 points below the 77.88 threshold — the three-peak caution pattern remains in force.

Daily momentum (NDX RSI)
79.8

Overbought territory — a fast climb that often precedes digestion.

Breadth oscillator (NYMO)
+17.1

Positive — more stocks advancing than declining on balance.

The trend at a glance

Nasdaq-100 — trailing 15 sessions to this close

Reference levels on this date

ReferenceLevelPlain meaning
NDX · 200-day average24,898The long-term trend line.
NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5)24,809The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle.
SPX · 200-day average6,743The long-term trend line.
SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5)6,713The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index.

Framework read

The one-liner

Participation back above 60% keeps the bull framework intact. The rally's foundation is a peace process that has not yet been signed.

Disclaimer. This publication is for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the personal opinions of the author alone and not the views of any past or present employer. Nothing here constitutes financial advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument. Levels and scenarios describe an analytical framework, not directives. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital; readers are solely responsible for their own decisions and should consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before acting on any information contained here.