What happened
A blowout jobs report (+115k versus 65k expected) launched the Nasdaq-100 up 2.35% — a 671-point surge that broke clean through the 28,000–28,400 zone the framework had flagged as the momentum-divergence sell band. TSMC's April revenue (+17.5% year over year) added chip fuel.
And yet the day produced the cycle's strongest warning signal: broad participation actually FELL on a big up day, and the share of Nasdaq stocks above their own trend lines dropped 7% while the index soared. Translation: a handful of mega-caps did nearly all the lifting. Iran, meanwhile, rejected the latest proposal via Pakistan.
The dashboard
Above the 60% line — the tech rally counts as broad.
1.83 points below the 77.88 threshold — the three-peak caution pattern remains in force.
Overbought territory — a fast climb that often precedes digestion.
Positive — more stocks advancing than declining on balance.
The trend at a glance
Reference levels on this date
| Reference | Level | Plain meaning |
|---|---|---|
| NDX · 200-day average | 24,956 | The long-term trend line. |
| NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 25,216 | The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle. |
| SPX · 200-day average | 6,753 | The long-term trend line. |
| SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 6,724 | The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index. |
Framework read
Price broke the ceiling; the crowd stayed home. The framework treats rising prices on falling participation as the signature late-cycle pattern — not a sell signal, but a reason to tighten the checklist.