What happened
The reversal arrived: the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq-100 1.5% from back-to-back records, and the VIX finally released — up 6.8%, reclaiming its 200-day average for the first time in eleven sessions. Chips led the selling: Intel -6%, Micron -6.6%, Nvidia -4.4%.
Three separate pressures converged. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a one-year high of 4.60%. Washington rejected the post-summit Iran framework, re-arming the conflict tail, and oil pushed to $111 — within $9 of the framework's $120 risk threshold. Broad participation broke below 50%.
The dashboard
Below the 60% line — the index is being carried by a minority of its stocks.
2.02 points below the 77.88 threshold — the three-peak caution pattern remains in force.
Overbought territory — a fast climb that often precedes digestion.
Negative — decliners outweigh advancers beneath the surface.
The trend at a glance
Reference levels on this date
| Reference | Level | Plain meaning |
|---|---|---|
| NDX · 200-day average | 25,106 | The long-term trend line. |
| NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 25,179 | The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle. |
| SPX · 200-day average | 6,780 | The long-term trend line. |
| SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 6,727 | The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index. |
Framework read
One reversal day is noise; the framework needs follow-through to call it a regime shift. But yields, oil and breadth all leaning the same way is exactly what the checklist watches for.