What happened
A fifth consecutive record close, achieved in defiance of a hot inflation print — core PCE at 3.8%, a three-year high, was shrugged off within the hour. AI software led (Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir up 3–4%) while chips lagged, and oil collapsed toward $91 — its worst month since 2020 — on a tentative 60-day Hormuz memorandum between the US and Iran.
Participation reclaimed the 60% line, and the framework formally shifted its base case to bull continuation. The remaining caution was singular and precise: the monthly momentum gauge closed at 77.72 — just 0.16 points below the 77.88 threshold that separates a three-peak warning pattern from a fresh breakout.
The dashboard
Not published for this session.
0.16 points below the 77.88 threshold — the three-peak caution pattern remains in force.
Overbought territory — a fast climb that often precedes digestion.
Not printed this session.
The trend at a glance
Reference levels on this date
| Reference | Level | Plain meaning |
|---|---|---|
| NDX · 200-day average | 25,572 | The long-term trend line. |
| NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 6,831 | The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle. |
| SPX · 200-day average | 6,749 | The long-term trend line. |
| SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 29,400 | The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index. |
Framework read
Breakout confirmed on price and breadth; the entire structural question now compresses into one number at each month-end close.