What happened
A seventh consecutive record close, with the Nasdaq-100 reaching 30,661 — what would prove to be the peak of this entire 30-session stretch. Banks led, broad participation firmed to 63%, and the calm deepened (VIX 15.8).
The headline for the framework: the monthly momentum gauge printed 78.30 — above the 77.88 threshold — but only one session into the month. Intramonth prints are provisional by rule; only the June 30 close counts. Participation depth stayed thin underneath: the new-highs count and internal trend gauges lagged badly for a record day.
The dashboard
Not published for this session.
0.42 points ABOVE the 77.88 threshold — provisional; only the month-end close counts.
Overbought territory — a fast climb that often precedes digestion.
Not printed this session.
The trend at a glance
Reference levels on this date
| Reference | Level | Plain meaning |
|---|---|---|
| NDX · 200-day average | 25,457 | The long-term trend line. |
| NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 25,691 | The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle. |
| SPX · 200-day average | 6,842 | The long-term trend line. |
| SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 6,748 | The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index. |
Framework read
The three-peak warning was provisionally on the wrong side of its own line. Provisional is the operative word — the framework doesn't score half-finished months.