What happened
A genuinely split tape: the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and banks roared 3.7% higher, while the Nasdaq-100 fell 0.5% on chip weakness. The broad market and the tech market were now telling different stories on the same day.
Tech participation held exactly at 60% — tested but not broken. Options traders, meanwhile, showed froth: the put/call ratio hit 0.44, meaning very few were buying protection. The VIX slipped to 15.4. Calm, confident, and narrow.
The dashboard
Above the 60% line — the tech rally counts as broad.
0.03 points ABOVE the 77.88 threshold — provisional; only the month-end close counts.
Overbought territory — a fast climb that often precedes digestion.
Negative — decliners outweigh advancers beneath the surface.
The trend at a glance
Reference levels on this date
| Reference | Level | Plain meaning |
|---|---|---|
| NDX · 200-day average | 25,524 | The long-term trend line. |
| NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 25,303 | The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle. |
| SPX · 200-day average | 6,853 | The long-term trend line. |
| SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 6,761 | The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index. |
Framework read
Rotation out of tech into everything else is the market's most benign way to resolve a narrow top. Whether it stays benign was about to be tested.