What happened
A soft core CPI print detonated a V-shaped recovery: the Nasdaq-100 surged back over 29,600 and the VIX dropped back below its 200-day average — which, by the framework's own rules, negated the stress signal that had confirmed the rollover a week earlier.
Participation bounced from 35% to 44% — repairing, though still far below the 60% line. The rollover path was formally invalidated; the Fed meeting the following week became the next binary.
The dashboard
Deeply narrow — historically the zone where corrections in this cycle found their floor.
3.78 points below the 77.88 threshold — the three-peak caution pattern remains in force.
Mid-range — momentum neither stretched nor washed out.
Positive — more stocks advancing than declining on balance.
The trend at a glance
Reference levels on this date
| Reference | Level | Plain meaning |
|---|---|---|
| NDX · 200-day average | 25,698 | The long-term trend line. |
| NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 25,349 | The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle. |
| SPX · 200-day average | 6,882 | The long-term trend line. |
| SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 6,719 | The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index. |
Framework read
The framework said rollover; the market said no, and did so through the framework's own invalidation levels. Being falsifiable means taking the reversal when it prints.