What happened
Rejection at the record cluster: the Nasdaq-100 fell 1.9% after failing near 30,560, while the Dow set a fresh record and the Russell 2000 rose — the clearest single-day picture yet of money rotating out of mega-cap tech into everything else. Banks made a new all-time high.
The monthly momentum gauge slipped back below the 77.88 threshold (to 75.8), putting the three-peak caution pattern provisionally back in force. Broad participation held above 60%; tech's slipped to 55%.
The dashboard
Below the 60% line — the index is being carried by a minority of its stocks.
2.06 points below the 77.88 threshold — the three-peak caution pattern remains in force.
Mid-range — momentum neither stretched nor washed out.
Positive — more stocks advancing than declining on balance.
The trend at a glance
Reference levels on this date
| Reference | Level | Plain meaning |
|---|---|---|
| NDX · 200-day average | 25,765 | The long-term trend line. |
| NDX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 25,460 | The quarterly EMA-5 — the zone that has caught nearly every major dip this cycle. |
| SPX · 200-day average | 6,892 | The long-term trend line. |
| SPX · deep-value band (QEMA5) | 6,748 | The equivalent deep-support reference for the broad index. |
Framework read
Broad market healthy, narrow market capped — the range-and-rotation path earned its 'base case' label on days like this.