The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.39% to 30,725.81 and the S&P 500 0.47% to 7,765.36 on Thursday as AI stocks slid; the 10-year yield closed 5.24%. Wednesday's closes were 31,160.08 and 7,801.77; the VIX ended Thursday at 15.41. December Brent settled $104.28 (+4.1%) on record tanker attacks; the President said the US will not strike Iran before the 3 November midterms. Nothing was signed. At 06:45 Singapore Friday (18:45 New York Thursday) the Nasdaq-100 CFD was 30,813.3, the S&P CFD 7,776.9 and gold 4,139.87.
| Index | Last | Support 1 | Support 2 | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 | Line in the sand | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX | 30,725.81 close; 30,813.3 CFD (06:45 SGT) | 30,713 · 30,632 | 30,583 · 30,547 | 30,895 · 30,985 | 31,018 · 31,117 | 30,583 — a daily close under it makes the rollover path modal; holding it keeps the shock path in front, and a daily close back over 31,117 returns two points to the range path | Chart 8-Oct; live JSON |
| SPX | 7,765.36 close; 7,776.9 CFD | 7,746 · 7,731 | 7,700 · 7,689 | 7,790 · 7,806 | 7,817 · 7,844 | 7,817 — a daily close back over the old August high returns two points to the range path; closes under it leave the record handed back | Chart 8-Oct; live JSON |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 4,135.78 chart; 4,139.87 live | 4,100 | 4,066 · 4,059 | 4,143 · 4,146 | 4,161 · 4,184 | 4,100 — the shelf bought three times this week, judged on a daily close; gold carries no scenario weight | Chart stamped 8-Oct 18:18; live JSON; daily-close basis |
Tuesday's gap was filled at Wednesday's open, and the record day now stands alone. The Nasdaq-100 opened Wednesday near 30,990 — under the 31,117 floor of the gap it had left the day before — traded down to about 30,900 and was bought back to close at 31,160.08, down 0.21%. That close was over the gap's floor but under Tuesday's low of 31,208.20, so Tuesday's bar sits by itself with a gap on either side. Wednesday's open, high and low are read from the 30-minute chart; no capture was taken for that session.
Thursday closed the index under every line of the breakout. It opened at 30,985, rallied to 31,125.13 in the first hour — eight points over the old gap floor — and then fell 569 points to 30,556.40 before closing at 30,725.81, down 1.39%. The close is under Monday's high (31,117), under the 2 October high (31,018) and 54 points under the June high the index took out a week ago. The cash gap left by the payrolls rally on 2 October is filled. The trigger was a Financial Times report that OpenAI's annualised revenue at the end of September was close to $50 billion, against the roughly $70 billion investors had been working with. The semiconductor index fell more than 3%; Oracle fell more than 5%, Broadcom more than 4% and Nvidia nearly 3%.
The count went with it. The Nasdaq-100 bullish percent — the share of members on point-and-figure buy signals — closed at 38.00, from 43.00 on Wednesday and 48.51 on Tuesday. That is ten and a half points in two sessions, back under 45 and back under 40, and more than the series gained across the three record closes. It now prints whole numbers where it had printed multiples of 0.99; the change is logged, not restated.
The ten-year closed under 5.25. The yield printed 5.37 on Wednesday, a new 24-year high, and 5.36 on Thursday, and closed at 5.24 — its first close under the line in five sessions. A $39 billion ten-year auction on Wednesday and a thirty-year auction on Thursday were both well received. The Fed's minutes said most participants see another increase as likely appropriate by year-end; futures price about a one-in-six chance for 28 October and better than four in five by December.
Oil gave the framework its third settle under 101 and then took all three back. December Brent settled at $100.20 on Wednesday after the IEA agreed to speed up reserve releases, and at $104.28 on Thursday, up 4.1%. Reuters counted more tanker attacks in the Gulf last week than in any week of the war, a storm is cutting output in the Gulf of Mexico, and reports said the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options. The price was near $105 before the President posted that the United States "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections".
The broad market did not follow the index down on Thursday. The NYSE Composite rose 0.40% and closed 5.6 points back over its pre-alert line. NYSE advancers beat decliners by 700. The share of S&P members over their 50-day average rose five points to 33.8%, the transports gained 1.4% and the banks 0.75%. Inside the Nasdaq-100 itself only 53 of 100 members fell. Wednesday was the broad down-day, with NYSE decliners ahead by 1,575; Thursday was a fall in the heaviest weights.
The slow breadth series. Both summation indices made new lows. The NYSE oscillator, which crossed zero on Tuesday for the first time in 36 sessions, closed at −0.59. Two more Nasdaq-100 members made 52-week lows than highs. None of the three repair counts this framework keeps has started.
The monthly divergence. October's running bar still holds a higher high than June's on a lower monthly RSI — 72.28 against 77.88. The gap widened from 4.66 to 5.60. The verdict is the monthly close on 30 October.
Credit and volatility. The high-yield ETF is at 92.73, fifteen cents under Tuesday, and the latest spread print is 3.09, six basis points wider. The VIX rose a third of a point to 15.41 on a 1.4% fall in the Nasdaq-100, and a spike to 16.46 was sold. Neither market confirmed the record on Tuesday and neither confirmed the sell-off on Thursday.
Diplomacy. The President's pledge is one side's statement with a date on it. Iran's foreign minister said Tehran will answer Washington's response to its seven-day plan "within a few days". The blockade stays, the Treasury sanctioned 17 more vessels and the Houthis claimed a third strike on Riyadh's airport this week. Nothing was signed, so outright index longs stay struck.
No chart capture was taken and no issue was published for Wednesday's close. Wednesday's closing figures here are the prior-bar values implied by Thursday's chart headers (close minus change), and they match the prior closes on the live price board. Wednesday's opens, highs and lows are read from Thursday's 30-minute charts and are approximate; Wednesday's intraday averages were never captured and are not estimated. Wednesday's published map and structures are scored in the ledger below. No map and no structures were published for Thursday, so Thursday is unscored: it is not counted as a hit or a miss, and nothing is claimed for a 569-point fall that the framework's short set was positioned for a day early. The tracker behind this issue is built on the 6 October file; the 7 October file was not available, and that day's plan is taken from the published issue.
Path D falls 2 to 34% and stays modal. Two of its own lines printed in opposite directions. Four points come off by the line this framework has carried all week: a ten-year close under 5.25. Two go back on because Brent settled over 101 — the restore this framework booked on Tuesday lasted two sessions. Wednesday's issue said the ten-year close would make the range path modal. It has not, and the next two paragraphs are the reason. D leads because oil is at 104 with tanker attacks at a record and December is still priced for a hike. It adds four on a ten-year close back over 5.25.
Path C rises 6 to 30%. Two points are its half of the shock path's withdrawal, the same split this framework used on 1 October. Two are the published line: a daily close under 31,117 with the count lower. Two are the S&P's record handed back — it closed under the old August high on Wednesday and under Monday's high on Thursday. C becomes modal on a daily close under 30,583.
Path B falls 4 to 28%. It takes its own two points from the shock path's withdrawal and gives up six: two to each hand-back and two returned to the shock path for oil. It keeps twenty-eight because its name is range and rotation, and Thursday was rotation: the NYSE higher, a third of S&P members over their 50-day, and 47 of 100 Nasdaq-100 members up on a day the index lost 1.4%. It re-takes two on a Nasdaq-100 close back over 31,117 and two on an S&P close over 7,817.
Path A holds at 8%. Its twin gate moved away: the count is twelve points from 50, having been one and a half away on Tuesday, and high-yield is 2.27 from 95. A pledge not to strike is not a signed reopening.
The lines that printed as written. A ten-year close under 5.25 takes four points off the shock path: printed Thursday. A daily close under 31,117 with the count lower moves two points from the range path to the rollover path: printed Thursday. An S&P close back under 7,817 returns that record's two points: printed Wednesday. A third Brent settle under 101 releases the larger sizes and a settle back over it re-imposes the cap: both printed, a day apart. Wednesday's map scored five of five on closes; the Nasdaq-100's intraday low ran about 165 points under the bottom of the full range, which is stated rather than scored.
The line that did not. Wednesday's framework signal said a ten-year close under 5.25 "retires the read and makes the range path modal". The close printed and the range path is third. The sentence treated the bond market as the only thing between the range path and the lead; within two sessions the index handed back its breakout and oil re-took its line. A single-condition promise about a four-path matrix was the error. Booked as a miss.
The record odds. Wednesday's special section put about 68% on a new intraday high by Friday and described three five-session paths. The 30% path — the gap holds — failed at the next open. The 44% path — the gap fills, then a new high inside the week — has its fill and needs 2.1% on Friday for its high. The path given 14%, a daily close back under 31,117, is the one that printed. The table is on course to resolve against the framework at Friday's close and will be scored then.
Structures that lost. The gold spring (Wednesday's Option 07), filled at Tuesday's close of 4,166.33 with $2.33 to spare, was stopped at 4,097 on Wednesday, when gold's low was 4,066.56. The loss is 69 points on an eighth of a percent of book and is claimed in full. The VIX long (Option 06) opened over its cap, filled at half size under its gap clause near 15.37 and was flat at 15:30 near 15.10: −0.27, claimed. VIX fills cannot be verified inside this pipeline.
Structures that did not trade. The Nasdaq-100 fade never saw its zone. The Nasdaq-100 sell-stop was stood down by its own clause — the open was under the gap floor — and the index then rose 170 points; the clause kept the book out of a losing short, and no gain is claimed for a loss avoided. The S&P sell-stop is narrow on the clause and not on the outcome: the open reads about 7,793, a point under its stand-down line on an image that resolves about one, and on either reading the fill needed a 7,817 print that never came.
Armed, and out of reach. Wednesday's Option 03 — a short after a daily close under 31,117 with the count lower — was armed by Thursday's close. Its entry is Friday's first qualifying close still under 31,117 but not under 31,018, and the tape closed 292 points beneath that cap. The signal was right and the structure cannot use it. That is a design miss: a cap keyed to one shelf. The order stays live for Friday as written, and its successor is keyed to 30,583. The S&P twin (Option 08) did not arm, because the S&P's own count rose on the close that went under its line.
The cost of standing aside, reversed. The last three issues stated the cost of holding no index long through three records. The index is now under Monday's close. No credit is claimed for that, and the long that was struck before Wednesday's issue is not scored as a loss avoided.
| Market | Support ladder | Resistance ladder | Framework use |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDX | 30,724 · 30,713 · 30,632 · 30,616 · 30,583 · 30,577 · 30,556 · 30,547 · 30,360 · 30,238 · 29,968 · 29,933 · 29,719 | 30,783 · 30,818–30,855 · 30,895 · 30,911–30,917 · 30,940 · 30,985 · 31,018 · 31,030 · 31,054–31,075 · 31,117 · 31,125 · 31,160–31,208 · 31,361 | 30,895 = Option 01 rejection line (zone 30,895–30,985; stop 31,030); 30,547 = Option 02 trigger (after a 30,632 print; stop 30,640); 30,583 on a daily close with the count lower = Option 03 (stop 30,790) and the rollover path's modal line; 30,783 = the Option 07 Nasdaq condition; 31,018–31,117 = the fill band of Wednesday's armed structural |
| SPX | 7,761 · 7,746 · 7,738–7,740 · 7,731 · 7,730 · 7,723 · 7,700 · 7,697 · 7,689 · 7,685 | 7,768 · 7,775–7,778 · 7,790 · 7,794 · 7,798 · 7,802 · 7,806 · 7,817 · 7,822 · 7,838 · 7,844 · 7,871 | 7,790 = Option 04 rejection line (zone 7,790–7,806; stop 7,822); 7,730 = Option 05 trigger (after a 7,746 print; stop 7,750); 7,761 = the Option 06 and Option 07 S&P condition; 7,700–7,685 = the open gap, a target band; 7,817 on a daily close returns two points to the range path |
| VIX | 15.35 · 15.15 · 15.10 · 14.96 · 14.81 | 15.55 · 15.70 · 15.76 · 15.93 · 16.06 · 16.46 · 16.50 · 17.30 · 17.45 · 18.03 | 15.70 = Option 06 trigger; 15.93 = its distance cap; 15.10 = its stop; 17.45 close = D +2; 19 = cover two thirds of every tactical short |
| Brent / 10Y / JNK | Brent (Dec) 102.96 · 101 · 97.80 — 10Y 5.23 · 5.00 — JNK 92.29 · 91.71 | Brent (Dec) 105.91 · 108.94 · 109.45 — 10Y 5.25 · 5.36 · 5.50 — JNK 94 · 95 | Brent: two consecutive December settles <101 restore the 30% cap; 109.45 = the step-4 watch. 10Y: a close >5.25 re-books escalation-3 and returns four points to the shock path; a close at or under 5.00 retires the gold licence. JNK: >95 verified re-opens the ladders |
All averages from the 8-Oct chart set (Core_Charts_20261009, Gen 3) — fresh, none carried. Thursday's high, low and close are live prints; Wednesday's close is implied by the chart header and Wednesday's high is a 30-minute chart read. Monthly and quarterly figures are running bars of six sessions; the quarterly EMA-5 shown for the R3 band is the Q3 final. Intraday averages must be re-read from the next capture.
| Level | What it is | Role at Thursday's close |
|---|---|---|
| 31,361 | Tuesday's all-time high (31,361.37) | 636 over the close; the reference high |
| 31,208 · 31,160 | Tuesday's low · Wednesday's close | The edges of the gap left overhead at Wednesday's open (upper bound read from the 30-minute chart; provisional) |
| 31,125 · 31,117 | Thursday's high (31,125.13) · Monday's high, the floor of Tuesday's gap | Thursday failed 8 points over it; the top of the armed Wednesday structural's fill band |
| 31,075 | Weekly band top | The close is back inside the band |
| 31,062 · 31,054 | 30-minute MA50 · hourly MA20 | Overhead averages |
| 31,030 | Option 01 stop | Over Thursday's open and the 2 October high |
| 31,018 | The 2 October all-time high (31,017.53) | The bottom of the armed Wednesday structural's fill band |
| 30,985 | Thursday's open (30,985.23) · 30-minute MA69 | Top of the Option 01 zone and its void line |
| 30,940 | 30-minute MA20 | Inside the Option 01 zone |
| 30,917 · 30,911 | Hourly MA10 · hourly EMA-14 | Inside the Option 01 zone |
| 30,895 | Daily EMA-5 | Option 01 rejection line; Option 03's exit line on a daily close |
| 30,855 · 30,831 · 30,818 | Hourly MA50 · 30-minute EMA-14 · 30-minute MA100 | First resistance over the close |
| 30,790 | Option 03 stop | Over the filled gap top and the 30-minute 10-average |
| 30,783 | 30-minute MA10 (the June high is 30,780) | Option 01 first target; the Option 07 Nasdaq condition |
| 30,737 | Top of the 2 October gap | Filled on Thursday; the close is inside the old band |
| 30,725.81 | Thursday close (30-minute EMA-5 30,724 · daily MA10 30,713) | Option 01 second target (30,724) |
| 30,640 | Option 02 stop | Over the hourly 100-average and the hourly band floor |
| 30,639 · 30,632 | Hourly band floor · hourly MA100 | Option 02 qualifier (30,632); Option 01 flat |
| 30,616 | Floor of the 2 October gap | Filled; no longer a magnet |
| 30,583 · 30,577 | The rollover line · daily EMA-14 | A daily close under 30,583 makes the rollover path modal; Option 03's line |
| 30,562 · 30,556 | 30-minute band floor · Thursday's low (30,556.40) | The low the bounce launched from |
| 30,547 | 30-minute MA200 | Option 02 trigger |
| 30,360 | Weekly EMA-5 | Option 02 first target; Option 03 chase cap |
| 30,238 | 20-day | Option 02 second target; Option 03 first target |
| 29,968 · 29,933 | Hourly MA200 · top of the 21 September gap | Option 02 flat (29,968); Option 03 second target (29,933) |
| 29,719 | 50-day | Option 03 flat |
| 27,178–27,599 | Quarterly EMA-5 (Q3 final) · 200-day | The R3 band, shut |
| Level | What it is | Role at Thursday's close |
|---|---|---|
| 7,871 | Weekly band top | Outer lid |
| 7,844 | Tuesday's record high (7,844.52) | 79 over the close |
| 7,838 | Daily band top | Lid |
| 7,822 | Option 04 stop | Over the old August high and the 30-minute band top |
| 7,818 · 7,817 | 30-minute band top · the old August high 7,816.70 | The breakout line, lost on Wednesday's close |
| 7,806 | Tuesday's low (7,805.96) | Top of the Option 04 zone and its void line |
| 7,802 | Wednesday's close (7,801.77) | Inside the Option 04 zone |
| 7,798 · 7,794 | Thursday's high 7,797.79 · hourly MA20 and Monday's high 7,794.35 | Inside the Option 04 zone |
| 7,790 | 30-minute MA50 | Option 04 rejection line |
| 7,778 · 7,775 | 30-minute MA20 and Thursday's open · hourly EMA-14 | Option 06 exit line (7,778) |
| 7,768 | 30-minute EMA-14 · daily EMA-5 | Option 04 first target |
| 7,765.36 | Thursday close | Reference |
| 7,761 | 30-minute EMA-5 and MA10 | The Option 06 and Option 07 S&P condition |
| 7,750 | Option 05 stop | Over the hourly 50-average and the band floors |
| 7,746 | Hourly MA50 | Option 05 qualifier; Option 04 second target |
| 7,738–7,740 | 30-minute and hourly band floors · 30-minute MA100 | Option 05 void line (7,740) |
| 7,731 · 7,730 | Thursday's low 7,731.26 · daily EMA-14, daily MA10 and hourly MA100 | Option 05 trigger (7,730); Option 04 flat (7,731); the S&P's line in the sand |
| 7,723 | 30-minute MA200 · weekly EMA-5 | The last average over the gap |
| 7,700 | Top of the open 2 October gap | Option 05 first target |
| 7,697 · 7,689 | 20-day · 50-day | Option 05 second target (7,689) |
| 7,685 | Gap floor | Option 05 flat |
| 7,633 · 7,579 | 69-day · 100-day | The next daily shelf |
| 7,246 | 200-day | R6 reference for the S&P |
Win probability is the framework's estimate that the first target prints before the stop within one day to one week, conditional on the trigger firing; it is not a backtest. It is calibrated to the scenario weights, to how each structure type has behaved across the last thirty days of issues — no fade has filled this week, first-shelf sell-stops lost three times on 1 October, and the last two fills were both small losses — and to the distance from the last price. All eight sit under 50% and carry the muted pill: lower-odds, higher-payoff structures. No outright index long is issued, because nothing is signed. Two structures are unconventional: Option 03, a daily-close breadth-confirmed short entered a session late, and Option 07, a short-Nasdaq / long-S&P pair that revives a retired structure type in one direction and is flagged for the operator to strike. If it is struck, its slot goes to gold's long side: a daily close over 4,161, the ten-day average.
| # | Structure | Win prob. | Instrument | Side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | NDX — the lost-shelf fade: sell a rejection close back under 30,895 after a print inside 30,895–30,985 | ~46% | NDX (USTECH CFD) | Short (rejection, half size) |
| 02 | NDX — Thursday's low and the rollover line lost: sell a holding close under 30,547 after a 30,632 print, with the exhaustion rule | ~38% | NDX (USTECH CFD) | Short (sell-stop) |
| 03 | NDX — the rollover line on a close: sell after a daily close under 30,583 with the count lower on the day, eighth size (unconventional) | ~36% | NDX (USTECH CFD) | Short (structural, eighth size, carries) |
| 04 | SPX — the fade under the lost breakout with the bank rung: sell a rejection close back under 7,790 after a print inside 7,790–7,806 | ~46% | SPX (US500 CFD) | Short (rejection, half size + bank rung) |
| 05 | SPX — Thursday's low and the daily averages lost: sell a holding close under 7,730 after a 7,746 print | ~40% | SPX (US500 CFD) | Short (sell-stop into the gap) |
| 06 | VIX — the doorway re-entry over the 20-day: buy a 30-minute close back over 15.70 with the S&P under 7,761, no entry over 15.93 | ~38% | VIX (CFD, spot-referenced) | Long (convexity) |
| 07 | NDX against SPX — the rotation pair: short the Nasdaq-100 and long the S&P 500 in equal dollar amounts, with the ratio at or under 3.96 (unconventional) | ~42% | USTECH CFD vs US500 CFD | Pair (short NDX / long SPX, eighth size, carries) |
| 08 | XAUUSD — the 4,100 shelf broken on a close: sell a daily close under 4,100 with a chase cap at 4,059 | ~36% | XAUUSD (CFD) | Short (daily-close) |
The base case is a session inside 30,424–31,028 with a close between 30,530 and 30,922 — the no-lean range, centred on Thursday's close and 604 points wide, Thursday's true range measured from Wednesday's close. The S&P maps to 7,730–7,801 with a close of 7,742–7,788; the VIX to 14.6–16.5, the ten-year to 5.14–5.34 and the December Brent settle to 100–108. The reasoning: both intraday momentum readings are at 38 after a 569-point fall and the evening board is already 88 points higher, so a bounce is the ordinary path; nine averages sit overhead between 30,783 and 30,985; four lines sit beneath between 30,547 and 30,583. A rejection under 30,895 points back to that shelf. A daily close under 30,583 makes the rollover path modal; a daily close back over 31,117 returns two points to the range path.
The base case is 30,238–31,018 inside 29,933–31,125. The week decides what Thursday was: a rotation out of the largest AI names into a broadening market, or the first leg of a rollover with the broad market one session behind. The tests are the count against 38, a daily close against 30,583, an NYSE advance-decline close over +800 and whether the ten-year stays under 5.25 through CPI on Wednesday the 14th. Bank earnings open the season on Tuesday; bond markets are shut on Monday. Weight moves to the rollover path on a close under 30,583; to the range path on closes over 31,117 or 7,817; to the shock path on a ten-year close over 5.25, a VIX close over 17.45 or an NYSE close under 23,333.
October holds a higher high than June on a lower monthly momentum reading, and has now given back 2% of it. The central range is 29,719–31,361 into late October. Third-quarter profit growth is expected near 30%, and Thursday showed how the heaviest weights take a disappointment. The Fed meets on the 27th–28th and the month closes on the 30th. The upside path needs five conditions and none is currently met: the Brent one was met for three sessions and lost. The others are a signed Hormuz date, high-yield over 95, the ten-year under 4.90 and the count over 50.
Six months out the central case is a 27,000–31,600 range with downward drift while the monthly divergence resolves. For the first time in four issues the top of that range has not had to be lifted. A Hormuz reopening remains the largest upside input. The largest downside input, a return to strikes, now has a date on it by the President's own pledge: after 3 November. To year-end the conditional base case stays 27,500–29,800 for the Nasdaq-100 and 7,100–7,700 for the S&P. The index is 926 points over the top of that band, from 1,424 on Tuesday, and the S&P 65 over its own. The band is a framework output conditional on the divergence holding, not a forecast; it is withdrawn if October closes over 31,117 with the monthly RSI over 77.88.
Thursday's closes, the session narrative and jobless claims are from Yahoo Finance, its live page and TradingKey, which also carries the OpenAI report, the stock moves and Thursday's Brent and WTI settles; Wednesday's session, the auction, the Fed minutes and the rate-hike odds from Investopedia via Yahoo; Wednesday's oil session from Reuters via Yahoo and Thursday's from Quartz; the President's post and the strike-option reports from Axios; the Gulf, Yemen and diplomatic events from CBS News. Every chart value is from Core_Charts_20261009.pdf, Gen 3, 55 of 55 core charts resolved by manifest label, captured 06:21 Singapore Friday; live prices from the 06:45 capture. Six flags. No capture exists for Wednesday's close, as described above. Wednesday's Brent settle of 100.20 is implied by Thursday's settle and its percentage change and by the chart header; no wire page printed it outright. The ten-year is 5.24 on the chart and 5.23 on the wire, both under the line; one page's text still carried a stale 5.28–5.29. One wire page printed index changes in its text that disagree with its own table, and the table, which matches the chart, was used. One summary characterised the President as ruling out a deal; his post describes "productive discussions", and the post is quoted here, not the characterisation. Intraday sequences and the claimed VIX fill are read from 30-minute chart images, not tick data; Wednesday's gold low is taken from the weekly bar by elimination. The gap left overhead at Wednesday's open is provisional until a daily bar confirms Wednesday's high. The high-yield spread is a next-business-day series (3.09 is 7 October). The sentiment surveys are this week's fresh prints. Carried and implied values are not presented as Thursday prints.
What repaired: the ten-year closed under 5.25 for the first time in five sessions, two auctions cleared, and on Thursday the broad market rose while the largest names fell. What did not: the Nasdaq-100 is under every line of its breakout with its count at 38, the S&P handed back its record, Brent is at 104 and nothing was signed. The rollover path takes six points and sits four behind the shock path. Two structures lost and one promise about the range path did not resolve as written; all are owned. No outright long is issued. The tactical lines are 30,895–30,985 above and 30,547–30,583 below. The next decision points are Friday's close against 30,583, then bank earnings on Tuesday and CPI on Wednesday with the ten-year one basis point under its line.