The Nasdaq-100 gapped down and closed 30,569.48 under its 30,583 rollover line on Tuesday; the S&P 500 held 7,805.45 and December Brent settled $105.69. The Nasdaq-100 fell 0.31% after opening 260 points lower on a second day of memory-chip selling and buying back 197; the S&P fell 0.02%, the VIX closed 15.27 and the ten-year 5.22%, a third close under 5.25. Two more ships were struck in the Strait of Hormuz and a report of a new Iran operation was denied by the White House; nothing was signed. At 06:47 Singapore Wednesday (18:47 New York Tuesday) the Nasdaq-100 CFD was 30,597.7, the S&P CFD 7,811.5, Brent 106.29 and gold 4,161.11. September CPI lands at 08:30 New York.
| Index | Last | Support 1 | Support 2 | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 | Line in the sand | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX | 30,569.48 close; 30,597.7 CFD (06:47 SGT) | 30,515 · 30,472 | 30,423 · 30,372 | 30,583 · 30,596–30,619 | 30,680 · 30,734 | 30,583 — lost on Tuesday's close, which makes the rollover path modal; a daily close back over 30,734 [the daily EMA-5] with the count over 40 returns the shock path to modal | Chart 13-Oct; live JSON |
| SPX | 7,805.45 close; 7,811.5 CFD | 7,795 · 7,786 | 7,765 · 7,757 | 7,812 · 7,817 | 7,836 · 7,844 | 7,817 — a daily close over the old August high returns two points to the range path; Tuesday's high stopped 2.9 under it | Chart 13-Oct; live JSON |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 4,159.46 chart; 4,161.11 live | 4,155 · 4,147 | 4,131 · 4,100 | 4,188 · 4,201 | 4,219 · 4,247 | 4,147 — Tuesday's low, judged on a daily close after CPI; gold carries no scenario weight | Chart stamped 13-Oct 18:20; live JSON; daily-close basis |
The rollover line printed on a daily close. The Nasdaq-100 opened at 30,404.20 — 260 points under Monday's close and already through 30,583 before the first bar had closed — made its low of 30,372.30 in the first hour, and spent the rest of the session buying the gap back. It closed 30,569.48, down 0.31%, 26 points under its high and 13.5 under the line. The daily MACD crossed down, the weekly re-crossed down by three points, and every daily average down to the 20-day at 30,472 now sits with a close under it except that one. The sequence is read from the 30-minute chart at about five points per pixel, not from tick data.
The members went with the weights this time. On Monday the index fell and three more members turned to buy signals; on Tuesday the count fell 2.97 to 39.60, back under 40, which puts the July analog back in on this framework's terms. Four fewer members closed over their 50-day average, the Nasdaq summation made a new low at −689.47, and the Nasdaq-100 advance-decline reading opened at −48.51 before recovering to −12.87. The driver was the memory complex a second day — Micron fell about 5%, Samsung 7% and SK Hynix 4% on the Chinese memory-architecture report — with Broadcom's chief executive telling investors they were "in a casino".
The S&P 500 did not follow. It opened two points under Monday's low, filled that in its first bar, printed 7,786.11 in its first hour and recovered to 7,814.15 in the afternoon — 2.9 points under the 7,817 line it has pierced twice and never closed over. The close was 7,805.45, down 0.02%, inside a 28-point range. Goldman Sachs beat on a 72% rise in equities revenue, JPMorgan missed and traded flat, Wells Fargo fell 3%; the financials ETF rose 1% while the bank index fell 1.4%. The Dow led the decline at −0.35%.
The NYSE oscillator closed over zero a third day, at its highest of the leg. The McClellan oscillator ended at +17.17; the NYSE summation rose a third session; advancers led all day and the advance-decline line printed +1,075 in the opening hour. It closed at +291. This framework's new range-path line is a close over +800, and a print is not a close — the distinction is stated because it decided a weight.
The VIX opened over its stack and sold all day. It opened at 15.61, eight cents over Monday's high and over the four daily averages between 15.39 and 15.48, and closed 15.27 as the gap-down was bought. The front future's premium narrowed again, to 9.9%. The daily band top fell to 16.95, and the shock path's volatility line follows it.
Rates. The ten-year closed 5.22%, a third consecutive close under 5.25, as energy prices steadied; the two-year was flat at 4.80 and the thirty-year fell to 5.56. Two regional Fed presidents said they favour one more rise this year. Today's CPI carries a headline consensus of 3.6% to 3.7% from a year earlier depending on the source, against 3.4% in August, with core near 2.5%. The rate line is live on today's close.
Credit. The high-yield ETF gave back 17 cents to 92.66, a twenty-fourth close under 95. The spread series printed 3.11 for Monday, four basis points narrower, and has not printed for Tuesday. Credit confirmed neither the Nasdaq's break nor the NYSE's repair.
Oil. December Brent settled $105.69, down 0.9% and still the highest settlement since mid-September; a fourth settle over 101, 3.76 under the 109.45 step that would add weight to the shock path. A US–Russia diesel arrangement weighed; Saudi strikes on Sanaa, booms reported near Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, three Houthi cruise missiles intercepted over Riyadh and two more ships struck in the strait pulled the other way. CENTCOM said it escorted more than 19 million barrels through Hormuz on Monday; Vortexa put Iran's own seaborne crude exports at zero for October.
Diplomacy. Axios reported that the President and Netanyahu discussed a new Iran operation before the elections; a White House official called the report false and restated that there will be no attack before the midterms. Qatari mediators are waiting for Tehran's answer to the latest US counterproposal. The President said he will decide "soon". A denied report is a report, a statement is a statement, and nothing was signed — outright index longs stay struck.
The monthly divergence. October's running bar holds a higher high than June's on a monthly RSI of 71.98 against 77.88; the gap widened to 5.90. The verdict is still the monthly close on 30 October. Tuesday added a first daily line under that peak, not a second peak.
The first weight to move in three sessions moved by a rule written on 9 October: a daily close under 30,583 makes the rollover path modal, taking two points each from the shock and range paths. Nothing else printed.
Path C rises 4 to 34% and becomes modal. The line printed on a session that gapped through it, with the count lower, the Nasdaq summation at a new low, the daily MACD crossed down and four fewer members over their 50-day. Against it, a 260-point gap was bought for 197 points and the S&P held its range. The path's retirement line is written in advance: a daily close back over 30,734 — the daily EMA-5 — with the count back over 40 returns the shock path to modal at 34 / 30 / 28. A second consecutive daily close back over 30,583 is the price-only backstop for the structural short.
Path D falls 2 to 32%. None of its own inputs printed. Brent settled under the step, the ten-year closed under 5.25, the VIX closed 15.27 against a line that fell to 16.95, the spread is 3.11 against 3.50 and the NYSE Composite is about 633 points over its 200-day. It retakes modal on a ten-year close over 5.25 — today's number is the test — or on any two of a VIX close over 16.95, a spread over 3.50, an NYSE Composite close under 23,352 and a Brent settle at 109.45.
Path B falls 2 to 26%. Its evidence kept improving on the NYSE side — the oscillator's best close of the leg, the summation up a third day, the high-low index up a sixth — and neither of its written lines printed: the advance-decline line closed +291 after a +1,075 print, and the S&P stopped 2.9 under 7,817. It takes two on an S&P close over 7,817, two on a Nasdaq-100 close over 31,117, and two from the rollover path on the first advance-decline close over +800 with the oscillator over zero.
Path A holds at 8%. Both halves of its twin gate moved away: the count is 10.4 points from 50 and high-yield 2.34 under 95. A denied report of a planned operation is not a signature.
One call printed as written. The 9 October issue said a daily close under 30,583 would make the rollover path modal, and three issues carried that line unchanged while the index closed 300, then 82, then 13.5 points over or under it. It printed on Tuesday and the weight moved by the amount written. The same issue's structural short, keyed to that close with the count lower, is armed; it has not filled and no gain is claimed.
One table closed against. The 7 October record-odds table gave the Nasdaq-100 a 74% chance of a new high by Tuesday the 13th and the S&P a 75% chance; it gave the S&P 66% for a record close. The Nasdaq-100 finished 2.5% under its high, the S&P 0.5% under its high and 13.5 points under its record close. All four Tuesday cells missed, as all four Friday cells had. The only path the table priced that printed was the one it weighted 14% — a daily close back under 31,117. The table is closed and the miss is owned in full.
Tuesday's map: four of five. The S&P closed inside its band (7,805 against 7,789–7,825), the VIX, the ten-year and Brent inside theirs. The Nasdaq-100 closed 10.5 points under the bottom of its projected band, with its low 160 points under the range floor: a second consecutive downside miss. A third widens the band to one and a half times the true range.
Two possible losses are claimed. The S&P sell-stop (Option 05) needed a half-hour close holding under 7,791 after a 7,797 print. The index printed over 7,797 in its first bar and fell to 7,786.11 in its first hour; the bars that followed close at about 7,790 to 7,792 on the render, inside the image's resolution of the trigger. If armed near 7,789, the first target 7,782 did not print and the 7,806 stop was taken in the afternoon recovery: a loss of about 17 points on a quarter of a percent of book is claimed. The VIX long (Option 06) opened over its trigger, which put it under its gap clause at half size; the early post-10:00 VIX bars read 15.50 to 15.56 and the S&P bars 7,786 to 7,792 — both conditions inside their images' resolution. If filled near 15.55, it was flat near 15.30: a loss of 0.25 on an eighth of a percent is claimed. The doctrine is unchanged — a loss that may exist is claimed, a gain that may not exist is not — and VIX fills cannot be verified inside this pipeline.
A read that was right three times and never owned. The rotation pair (Option 07) was re-keyed on Monday to the ratio alone, and on Tuesday the ratio opened 3.900 on the gap, never printed the 3.937 bounce the trigger required, and closed 3.916, through the first target. Three consecutive sessions in the pair's favour without a fill is the condition that retired it on 25 September, and it is retired again. The design is not changed a third time. No gain is claimed.
Structures that did not trade. The Nasdaq-100 fade never saw its zone — the high was 183 points under it. The Nasdaq-100 sell-stop stood down by its own gap clause: the open was under the 30,496 line that stands it down, and the 30,624 qualifier never printed; the clause saved a loss, and no credit is claimed for a loss avoided. The S&P fade stopped 2.9 points short of its zone. Gold's short could not trigger on Tuesday's close by its calendar clause, and would not have on the level: 4,155 was pierced to 4,147 and closed over.
Outright longs. They stayed struck through a session that gapped down 260 points and recovered 197. No cost on the day and no saving claimed: the low was bought, and this framework stood aside by rule.
| Market | Support ladder | Resistance ladder | Framework use |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDX | 30,564 · 30,552 · 30,542 · 30,515 · 30,472 · 30,465 · 30,440 · 30,423 · 30,396 · 30,372 · 30,275 · 30,118 · 29,933 · 29,858 | 30,583 · 30,596 · 30,606 · 30,617 · 30,619 · 30,680 · 30,689 · 30,696 · 30,709 · 30,722 · 30,734 · 30,802 · 30,947 · 31,018 · 31,117 · 31,147 · 31,361 | 30,583 = the lost rollover line and Option 03's fill condition (cap 30,465; stop 30,722); 30,596–30,619 = Tuesday's gap, Option 01's fade zone (stop 30,696) and Option 07's add-back rung; 30,372 = Option 02 trigger (after a 30,423 print; stop 30,440); 30,734 = the rollover path's retirement line on a daily close with the count over 40; 31,117 on a daily close returns two points to the range path |
| SPX | 7,805 · 7,803 · 7,802 · 7,801 · 7,800 · 7,796 · 7,795 · 7,793 · 7,791 · 7,788 · 7,786 · 7,765 · 7,757 · 7,744 · 7,725 · 7,707 · 7,700 · 7,685 | 7,811 · 7,812 · 7,814 · 7,817 · 7,818 · 7,821.67 · 7,836 · 7,844 · 7,848 · 7,867 · 7,905 | 7,817 = Option 04 rejection line (zone 7,817–7,836; stop 7,848) and, on a daily close, the range path's two points; 7,786 = Option 05 trigger (after a 7,795 print; stop 7,803); 7,795 = the Option 06 S&P condition; 7,700–7,685 = the open gap |
| VIX | 15.22 · 15.17 · 15.13 · 15.11 · 15.08 · 14.93 · 14.77 | 15.39 · 15.44 · 15.46 · 15.48 · 15.53 · 15.61 · 15.85 · 15.98 · 16.42 · 16.95 · 18.05 | 15.53 = Option 06 trigger; 15.85 = its distance cap; 15.08 = its stop; 16.95 close = D +2 (the daily band top, down from 17.22); 19 = cover two thirds of every tactical short |
| Brent / 10Y / JNK | Brent (Dec) 105.01 · 104.82 · 101 — 10Y 5.18 · 5.00 — JNK 92.50 · 91.71 | Brent (Dec) 106.73 · 108.66 · 109.45 — 10Y 5.25 · 5.50 — JNK 94 · 95 | Brent: two consecutive December settles <101 restore the 30% cap; a 109.45 settle adds two points to the shock path. 10Y: today's close >5.25 re-books escalation-3 and returns the shock path to modal; ≤5.00 retires the gold licence. JNK: >95 verified re-opens the ladders |
All averages from the 13-Oct chart set (Core_Charts_20261014, Gen 3) — fresh, none carried. Tuesday's open, high, low and close are live prints. Monthly and quarterly figures are running bars of nine sessions; the quarterly EMA-5 shown for the R3 band is the Q3 final. Intraday averages must be re-read from the next capture.
| Level | What it is | Role at Tuesday's close |
|---|---|---|
| 31,361 | The all-time high of 6 October (31,361.37) | 792 over the close; the reference high |
| 31,147 · 31,117 | Weekly band top · the 5 October high | A daily close over 31,117 returns two points to the range path |
| 31,018 · 30,947 | The 2 October high · Friday 9 October's high | The tops of the two-week decline |
| 30,802 | Daily MA10 | Lost on Monday; first daily average over the retirement line |
| 30,734 | Daily EMA-5 | The rollover path's retirement line on a daily close with the count over 40 |
| 30,722 | Option 03 / Option 07 stop | Over the 30-minute 50-average and beyond the gap |
| 30,709 · 30,705 | 30-minute MA50 · 30-minute band top | The averages a failed gap-fill must stay under |
| 30,696 | Option 01 stop | Over the two hourly averages, beyond the gap |
| 30,689 · 30,680 | Hourly MA100 · hourly MA20 | First resistance band over the gap |
| 30,619 · 30,617 | Monday's low = gap top · daily EMA-14 | Option 01 void line; the top of the gap |
| 30,606 | Hourly EMA-14 | Inside the gap |
| 30,598 · 30,596 | Tuesday-evening CFD (30,597.7) · Tuesday's high = gap floor (30,595.80) | Option 01 rejection line; Option 07 rung line |
| 30,583 | The rollover line | Lost on Tuesday's close; Option 03 fills on a 10:30-bar close under it; a second consecutive close back over it is the price-only backstop |
| 30,569.48 | Tuesday close (30-minute MA20 30,564 · EMA-14 30,552 · EMA-5 30,542) | Reference |
| 30,515 | 30-minute MA10 | Option 01 first target |
| 30,472 · 30,465 | 20-day · weekly EMA-5 | Option 01 second target; Option 03 chase cap (30,465) |
| 30,440 | Option 02 stop | Over the two intraday band floors |
| 30,423 · 30,396 | 30-minute band floor · hourly band floor | Option 01 flat; Option 02 qualifier (30,423) |
| 30,372 | Tuesday's low (30,372.30) | Option 02 trigger |
| 30,275 | The October low (30,274.65) | Option 02 first target; Option 03 first target |
| 30,118 | Hourly MA200 | Option 02 second target |
| 29,933 · 29,858 | Top of the 21 September gap · 50-day | Option 02 flat; Option 03 second target and flat |
| 27,178–27,676 | Quarterly EMA-5 (Q3 final) · 200-day | The R3 band, shut |
| Level | What it is | Role at Tuesday's close |
|---|---|---|
| 7,905 | Weekly band top | Outer lid |
| 7,867 | Daily band top | Lid |
| 7,848 | Option 04 stop | Over the void line and the record high |
| 7,844 | The record high of 6 October (7,844.52) | 39 over the close |
| 7,836 | Option 04 void line | Top of the Option 04 zone |
| 7,821.67 · 7,818 | Monday's high · hourly band top | Inside the Option 04 zone |
| 7,817 | The old August high (7,816.70) | Option 04 rejection line; a daily close over it returns two points to the range path |
| 7,814 · 7,812 · 7,811 | Tuesday's high (7,814.15) · 30-minute band top · Tuesday-evening CFD (7,811.5) | The lid Tuesday stopped under |
| 7,805.45 | Tuesday close (hourly MA20 7,805 · 30-minute EMA-5 7,805) | Reference; Option 04 first target; Option 06 exit line |
| 7,803 · 7,802 · 7,801 · 7,800 | Option 05 stop · 30-minute EMA-14 and hourly EMA-5 · 30-minute MA20 and hourly EMA-14 · 30-minute MA10 | The fast intraday stack |
| 7,796 · 7,795 | Daily EMA-5 and 30-minute MA69 · 30-minute MA50 | Option 05 qualifier (7,795); Option 04 second target; the Option 06 S&P condition |
| 7,793 · 7,791 · 7,788 | Hourly MA50 · 30-minute band floor · 30-minute MA100 | The floor over Tuesday's low |
| 7,786 | Tuesday's low (7,786.11) | Option 05 trigger; Option 04 flat |
| 7,765 · 7,763 · 7,761 | Hourly MA69 · daily MA10 · weekly EMA-5 | Option 05 first target (7,765) |
| 7,757 | Daily EMA-14 | Option 05 second target |
| 7,744 | 30-minute MA200 · hourly MA100 | Option 05 flat |
| 7,725 | 20-day | Over the open gap |
| 7,707 · 7,700 | 50-day · top of the open 2 October gap (hourly MA200 7,706) | The only open S&P gap |
| 7,685 | Gap floor | The far edge of the magnet |
| 7,646 · 7,591 | 69-day · 100-day | The next daily shelf |
| 7,259 | 200-day | R6 reference for the S&P |
Win probability is the framework's estimate that the first target prints before the stop within one day to one week, conditional on the trigger firing; it is not a backtest. It is calibrated to the scenario weights, to how each structure type has behaved across the last thirty days of issues — fades have met their triggers twice this month for a scratch and a small unclaimed gain; sell-stops have lost on every fill or possible fill, including Tuesday's; the structural short's prior versions filled once, on 24 September — and to the distance from the last price. All eight sit under 50% and carry the muted pill: lower-odds, higher-payoff structures. No outright index long is issued, because nothing is signed and the rollover path is modal. Two structures are unconventional: Option 03, the armed daily-close, breadth-confirmed structural entered after CPI rather than through it, and Option 07, the add-back rung that re-anchors it. The rotation pair is retired after its third miss.
| # | Structure | Win prob. | Instrument | Side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | NDX — the gap fade: sell a rejection close back under 30,596 after a print inside 30,596–30,619, from the 10:30 bar | ~44% | NDX (USTECH CFD) | Short (rejection, half size) |
| 02 | NDX — Tuesday's low lost: sell a holding close under 30,372 after a 30,423 print, with the buffered exhaustion rule | ~38% | NDX (USTECH CFD) | Short (sell-stop) |
| 03 | NDX — the rollover line on a close, armed: sell the first 30-minute close from the 10:30 bar still under 30,583, eighth size (unconventional) | ~42% | NDX (USTECH CFD) | Short (structural, eighth size) |
| 04 | SPX — the fourth look at the breakout line: sell a rejection close back under 7,817 after a print inside 7,817–7,836 | ~40% | SPX (US500 CFD) | Short (rejection, half size) |
| 05 | SPX — Tuesday's low lost: sell a holding close under 7,786 after a 7,795 print | ~36% | SPX (US500 CFD) | Short (sell-stop) |
| 06 | VIX — the doorway re-entry over the stack: buy a 30-minute close back over 15.53 with the S&P under 7,795, no entry over 15.85 | ~36% | VIX (CFD, spot-referenced) | Long (convexity) |
| 07 | NDX — the structural add-back rung: after Option 03 has filled, add an eighth on a rejection close back under 30,596 from inside the gap, re-anchoring the blend (unconventional) | ~38% | NDX (USTECH CFD) | Short add (structural rung, eighth size) |
| 08 | XAUUSD — the failed reclaim, re-keyed to Tuesday's low: sell a daily close under 4,147 with a chase cap at 4,100, eighth size | ~34% | XAUUSD (CFD) | Short (daily-close, eighth size) |
The base case is a session inside 30,423–30,715 with a close between 30,480 and 30,660 — the no-lean range, centred on Tuesday's close and 292 points wide, the wider of the last two true ranges. The S&P maps to 7,791–7,819 with a close of 7,796–7,815, which is Tuesday's 28-point range re-centred; a CPI day will test a band that narrow and the rule is stated rather than bent. The VIX maps to 14.6–16.4, the ten-year to 5.10–5.34 and the December Brent settle to 102–109. The reasoning runs in four steps. The index closed 26 points under its high after buying back 197 of a 260-point gap, so the first move is toward the gap at 30,596–30,619, where the daily EMA-14 and the retest of the rollover line meet. The intraday momentum readings are 46 and 40 — not oversold after the recovery. The next shelf under is 30,423–30,372, the two band floors and Tuesday's low. And the number decides the open: a cool print gaps the index over 30,583 and stands the structural down for the day; a hot one gaps it under 30,465 and caps it out; the fill needs the number to be ordinary. A ten-year close over 5.25 returns the shock path to modal; a daily close over 30,734 with the count over 40 retires the rollover read.
The base case is 30,275–30,715 inside 29,933–31,147. This is the week the line is either held or handed back. The rollover line printed on a close and the structural is armed; the NYSE side has three oscillator closes over zero and still no repair count; the bond market has three closes under 5.25 and meets CPI today, producer prices and retail sales on Thursday, and expiry on Friday. Weight moves to the range path on closes over 7,817 or 31,117 or an advance-decline close over +800; back to the shock path on a ten-year close over 5.25, a VIX close over 16.95, a Brent settle at 109.45 or an NYSE Composite close under 23,352; the rollover read retires on a daily close over 30,734 with the count over 40, and its structure on a second consecutive close over 30,583.
October holds a higher high than June on a lower monthly momentum reading, nine sessions in, and the gap between the two readings widened to 5.90. The central range is 29,858–31,361 — the 50-day to the all-time high — into late October. The Fed meets on the 27th and 28th with two regional presidents backing a further rise, Israel votes on the 27th, the month closes on the 30th and the US votes on 3 November. The upside path needs five conditions and none is met: a signed Hormuz date, two Brent settles under 101, high-yield over 95, the ten-year under 4.90 and the count over 50. The verdict is the monthly close: over 31,117 with the monthly RSI over 77.88 invalidates; anything less leaves a higher-price, lower-momentum peak with its first daily line now printed under it.
Six months out the central case is a 27,000–31,600 range with downward drift while the monthly divergence resolves; the top of that range is unchanged for a fourth issue. A Hormuz reopening remains the largest upside input and the largest sell-the-news for the war-bid assets; a return to strikes is the largest downside input, and Tuesday's denied report shows the date is contested inside the administration rather than settled. To year-end the conditional base case stays 27,500–29,800 for the Nasdaq-100 and 7,100–7,700 for the S&P. The index is 769 points over the top of that band, from 865 on Tuesday's issue, and the S&P 105 over its own. The band is a framework output conditional on the divergence holding, not a forecast; it is withdrawn if October closes over 31,117 with the monthly RSI over 77.88.
Tuesday's closes, the bank results and the chip moves are from TheStreet, investingLive and 24/7 Wall St.; the Brent and WTI settlements, the diesel arrangement and the Saudi–Houthi strikes from Reuters; the strait incidents, the CENTCOM and Vortexa figures, the Axios report and the White House denial from Iran International; the Treasury close and the CPI preview from investingLive, and the bank-earnings schedule and prior consensus from FinancialJuice. Every chart value is from Core_Charts_20261014.pdf, Gen 3, 55 of 55 core charts resolved by manifest label, captured 06:20 Singapore Wednesday; live prices from the 06:47 capture. Nine flags. The Dow's close is reported as 51,670.10 by one wire and 51,675.16 by another. The CPI consensus is 3.6% on one source and 3.7% on another; both are given. The high-yield spread chart shows Monday's print, one session behind. The Brent settle rests on one wire; the chart's 106.27 and the board's 106.29 are later prints. The NYSE Composite's moving averages were not read on this capture and are carried from Monday's. The Nasdaq and NYSE summation charts carry header changes that do not match their oscillators; the summations are computed from the oscillators and match the chart closes. The equity put-call header implies Monday's print was revised from 0.79 to 0.62; it is flagged, not restated. The Nasdaq-100 bullish percent opened at 41.58 against a 42.57 prior close, so the series' base is still not stable. Intraday sequences and both claimed losses are taken from 30-minute images that resolve about five Nasdaq-100 points, under one S&P point and two VIX cents, not from tick data. Rate-hike odds were not re-sourced and no figure is quoted. The sentiment surveys are last week's prints, carried. Carried values are not presented as Tuesday prints.
What repaired: the NYSE oscillator closed over zero a third day at its best of the leg, advancers led all session, the S&P held its range and the ten-year closed under 5.25 a third time. What did not: the Nasdaq-100 gapped through 30,583 and closed under it with its count under 40, its summation at a new low and its daily MACD crossed down; Brent settled over 101 a fourth time and nothing was signed. The weight moved by the rule written on 9 October and by no more than it said: rollover 34, shock 32, range 26, bull 8. Two possible losses are claimed and the pair is retired. The tactical lines are the gap at 30,596–30,619 above and 30,372 below; for the S&P, 7,817 and 7,786. The next decision points are CPI at 08:30, the 10:30 bar for the structural, the ten-year close against 5.25 and the daily close against 30,583 and 30,734.